Harvard Study Links New Album Release Days to a 15.1% Spike in US Traffic Deaths
A study from Harvard Medical School researcher Vishal Patel and colleagues, published in JAMA Network Open, found that fatal road traffic crashes in the United States rose 15.1% on major album release days compared to an average day. The research, first reported by The Guardian and summarized by Far Out Magazine, examined ten major release days between 2017 and 2022 — including Taylor Swift's Midnights and Harry Styles' Harry's House (both 2022), and Drake's Scorpion (2018).
What the data shows
- Sample: ten major US album release days, 2017–2022
- Fatal road traffic crashes: up 15.1% versus an average day
- Same-day streams for songs on Spotify's US Top 200: up 43%
- Albums included in the sample: Midnights (Taylor Swift), Harry's House (Harry Styles), Scorpion (Drake), among others
- Published in: JAMA Network Open
Patel explained why album release days made for a useful research window: they trigger a nationwide, synchronized jump in smartphone use that has nothing to do with road conditions, weather, or who happens to be driving that day — making them close to a natural experiment. He was careful to note the study cannot confirm whether music was actually playing in any given car at the moment of a crash. What it does establish is that these days show a measurably different level of nationwide music-related phone activity compared to normal days, which is the premise the whole analysis rests on.
The researchers' explanation
The team offers two hypotheses. First, a new release is unfamiliar material, and unfamiliar music may demand more of a listener's attention than a familiar song would. Second, searching for and pulling up a just-released album on a streaming app takes longer than hitting play on an existing playlist — extending the time a driver's eyes are off the road.
The paper concludes that smartphone-based music streaming may be a significant contributor to distracted driving and traffic fatalities. Notably, almost all of the increase was concentrated among drivers traveling alone. Patel's practical advice: pick the album before you start driving, hit play, and put the phone down — or if there's a passenger, hand them the phone.